June 21, 2010

Big Bear lakefront homes in escrow...

Summer is off to a quick start with three Big Bear lakefront homes for sale  going into escrow over the past few weeks. Seems like there are a few people looking to be moved in by the Fourth of July!

39997 North Shore Drive ~ 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 5484 sf, 4 car garage, built in 1991, true log architecture 
List Price: $1,549,000

41346 Condor Drive ~ 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2962 sf, 2 car garage, built in 1982
List Price: $1,397,000

39832 Lakeview Drive ~ 4 bed, 3 bath, 2825 sf, 2 car garage, built in 1970
List Price: $999,999

Average list price per square foot: $369
Median list price per square foot: $354

From left to right below ~ North Shore, Condor, Lakeview

                 

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June 16, 2010

Property values in Southern California on the rise

Just read an article in the LA Times stating that not only are sales up, but that May prices are up 22.5% over May of last year. If you look at the accompanying graph, you'll see there's a definitive up trend in Southern California home values that hasn't been seen in quite some time.

Just more data suggesting that the market may have taken a definitive turn.

The article claims home buyer tax credit and extremely low interest rates may be responsible for the significant up-tick in sales and prices.

Being that Big Bear's real estate market depends on the health of the entire southland's market, this is certainly a good sign. As property values recover further I'm suspecting we'll see banks listing their foreclosed homes at more competitive prices. 

When the real estate foreclosure crisis began, it seemed banks were letting properties go at bottom dollar. Now that banks have stabilized, I am seeing them listing their properties at much closer to market value. There doesn't seem to be the rush to unload their inventory as quickly as there had been in previous years.

So perhaps seeing moreBig Bear lakefront foreclosures might not hurt values as much as I've previously expected. Only time will tell.

But asI have mentioned previously, between the low number of existing Big Bear lakefront homes for sale, interest rates approaching their historical lows, and sales steadily expected to increase heading into our busy summer buying season, we just might see conditions this summer where things become less of a buyers market as market forces stabilize

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June 15, 2010

Big Bear lakefront real estate market positioned for a busy summer

With June half over, schools getting out this week and many people planning their summer vacation in the mountains, we are fast approaching our busiest time of year for home sales. You can see from the 2009 internet activity graph below that interest in Big Bear lakefront homes for sale jumps in late June and stays high through September.

 

This supports similar information found in a 10 year history of sales of the overall Big Bear real estate market which shows the busiest months for home purchases being July, August, and September.

This year brings a few other factors that should specifically benefit lakefront home sales. The lake is the fullest it has been since 2005 (down only 2' 5"), mortgage interest rates are incredibly low hovering just under 5%, and prices have dropped considerably adjusting back to about 2003 levels.

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With real estate prices having posted record declines since the market’s turn in early 2006, it is nice to finally see some signs that the market may be bottoming out. The number of Big Bear lakefront homes currently for sale is slightly lower than last year, the number of sales is up moderately, and the lake should be near full by mid-June. Over the last few weeks, we have also seen interest rates drop almost a half point, with today’s mortgage rate posting at 4.85% for a 30 year fixed conventional loan.

Although it is nice to see all these positive signs suggesting a market recovery, the overall outlook for Big Bear lakefront real estate remains uncertain. This is mainly due to the somewhat unpredictable and continued downward pressure of distressed properties on the lakefront market.

Lakefront short sales and foreclosures have sold for significantly less than traditional listings over the past 12 months. These “discounted” properties suppress prices as appraisers and buyers alike will use them to justify lower values. Over the past year, lakefront short sales and foreclosures have averaged $307 per square foot while traditional lakefront sales have averaged $457 per square foot.

Currently, there are no short sale or foreclosure lakefront listings in the Big Bear MLS. But looking at distressed lakefront properties using an on-line resource, there are currently three pre-foreclosures, three properties with an auction date set, and one bank-owned property currently for sale. Comparing these numbers to where we were at last year, it is evident that we are going to have more distressed sales on the lake this year than last year.

Most likely, these distressed Big Bear lakefront homes will most likely keep prices from rebounding. But with the lake being near full, the attractively low interest rates, and the fact that we are heading into the busiest lakefront buying season of the year, it is not unreasonable to remain optimistic that we will see a competitive buying environment that keeps prices stable and home inventory low.