Take a look at the last 10 years of the median and average prices of sold Big Bear lakefront homes.
After a steady run up in prices during the "Great Inflation" of the early 2000s, we see somewhat of a roller coaster ride downward after the market's peak in 2007. In fact, 2009 saw what one was hoping was a stabilization of lakefront real estate prices. Soon enough, we came to find out that the reprieve in declines was temporary, and 2009-2010 resulted in the sharpest drop in lakefront home values in over a decade.
Of course, one can't help but notice the uptick in price measures over the past year. For as much as this may result in an optimistic outlook, I can't help but look back at the false increase from 2008 to 2009 and be wary that one year of increased values does not necessarily mean a recovery is here. That being said, I'd much rather see prices heading upward than downward.
But on that optimistic note, since the market's downturn began, I've noticed that we have seen slowly increasing optimism in overall buyer sentiment from year to year. The specter of another market crash has subsided which leaves buyers with a more secure feeling about purchasing a vacation home in Big Bear. Furthermore, there seems to be less debate over whether we are actually in a recovery as most experts agree that things are getting better, albeit at a very slow but steady pace. With the stock market currently over 13,000 points (and having recovered from the 7000 point range in early 2009), the typical buyer of a Big Bear lakefront home is in a much better financial position than in several years past.
Couple this with historically low mortgage interest rates, and significant values in lakefront home prices, and I feel there is reason to believe we may be close to seeing a bottom - and maybe even a recovery - in the Big Bear lakefront home market.