With summer in full swing and the first big heatwave of the year expected to hit the Southland this weekend, I figured now is as good as a time as any to check in on the Big Bear lakefront real estate market.

After 2018 ended up as the worst year for lakefront sales since the Big Bear MLS began keeping electronic records in 2002, with the lake filling up over 9 feet due to a wet and snowy winter, expectations were that the lakefront market would bounce back significantly.

So let's take a look...

Let's start with sales.

 

Note that so far in 2019, we have almost matched the number of lakefront sales from all of last year. Looking at the figure below, with what are typically our busiest months for lakefront sales still ahead, I would expect to see sales at least double before year's end. 

So sales have bounced back to a more normal level, but not a remarkable level (as of yet) like we saw in 2005 when the lake filled up over 15 feet and 2012 when the lake was full to the point that water was spilling over the top of the dam.

Now let's take a look at Big Bear lakefront home values.

While 2018 was a year when mostly smaller, shallow-water homes sold at a huge discount as sellers feared another dry winter would negatively affect their home values further, we've seen prices bump back up to a more typical range this year. 2019 has seen a couple 2M dollar plus sales already whereas the highest price sale in 2018 was only $1,125,000. So we're back to seeing a more normal distribution of sales among price ranges resulting in more accurate average and median price numbers.

Price per square foot measures of lakefront homes has remained constant in the mid-$400 level, typical of the last few years. Not much change here which suggests that although the average and median sales prices fell in 2018, lakefront home values have actually stayed relatively stable.

Next, let's look at how long it is taking lakefront homes to sell.

Another bright spot this year is that lakefronts are spending less time on market before selling. Interestingly, the average number of days on market of currently listed properties is 255. This supports the belief that lakefront homes that are priced right are selling quickly while others are spending much longer on market, with many others never selling at all..

Taking into account these current market conditions, Big Bear lakefronts have seen the bounce back we expected. Up to this point, it's been a good recovery, but not a spectacular one. With summer hitting its stride and with what are typically our busiest months ahead of us for lakefront sales, I remain optimistic that the lakefront market will go from good to great before year's end.