It is an annual occurrence to see the number of Big Bear homes for sale increase as we head into summer. But this year we have seen the inventory of homes rise more rapidly than usual. From an outsider's perspective, this might be a cause for concern. But for those more familiar with Big Bear real estate, we know that this uptick in listings is due to the unusual weather we experienced this past winter.
This past winter in Big Bear was one of the worst we had experienced in decades in terms of warm weather and lack of snow. Because of this, there were far fewer visitors to the Big Bear Valley. Being that Big Bear's real estate market is driven primarily by vacation home sales, fewer visitors means fewer sales. With many local business owners suggesting they saw a 40-50% drop in business this winter, Big Bear homes sales dropped between 25-30% depending on the month.
Ultimately, fewer homes sales in the winter and spring due to poor weather and reduced visitorship leave more homes remaining on market heading into our busy summer season. Look at the figure below to see the extent of this rise in inventory in relation to the last few years.
As you can see, we are nowhere near the 13 months of home inventory that we saw three years ago. But there is a distinct rise from the 3.8 months of inventory we saw last July.
Again, normally this would be a reason to believe that the Big Bear real estate market might be slowing down. But with the weather being a perfectly reasonable explanation for this trend, there is no reason for concern. With summer being our busiest season for home sales, I would expect home inventory to top out in July and drop back to lower levels heading into next winter.