The number of Big Bear homes for sale is on the rise while sales have cooled off so far this year. Normally, this trend might be a concern as the supply of homes on the market is increasing while the demand to purchase Big Bear homes is decreasing. If this goes on long enough, prices are bound to suffer.

But there is an explanation for this trend that leaves me less concerned than I normally would be in this situation.

First off, the number of Big Bear homes on the market almost always increases in the springtime and eventually peaks in late summer. This is a dependably predictable annual trend. But the decline in sales we've seen as of late is not typical. Although unusual, the likely reason for this slowdown in sales can be explained by the effects the warm, dry winter had on the local economy.

Having had our warmest and driest winter in recent memory, we experienced far fewer visitors to Big Bear this winter than usual. A source that works closely in the lodging industry said that vacation home rental occupancy was down almost 50% valley-wide this winter. This lack of tourism affects all of Big Bear's businesses, with real estate not being an exception. This is witnessed by the 35% drop in sales we saw this March as compared to the previous March.

Of course, with the drop in sales, more homes remain on the market thus resulting in higher home inventory.

Here are some figures to look at in regards to the rise in listings and drop in sales we've experienced.

If it had not been for the slow winter explaining the current trend, I think there would be reason for concern. But as summer, our busiest season for home sales approaches, I have no reason to doubt that we will see more demand resulting in a decrease in inventory. Although guessing what the market will do can be a dangerous venture, I would expect the market to continue to see prices appreciate throughout 2014.