Happy New Year! With 2013 finally here, let's take a look back at the Big Bear lakefront real estate numbers for 2012 and hazard a guess as to what may be in store for 2013. As you'll see, it certainly was a pivotal year for the lakefront market.
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The Number of Lakefront Sales more than doubled in 2012 increasing by 125% from 16 sales in 2011 to 36 sales this past year. Over the past decade, only 2005 saw more sales. The sales increase in 2005 was caused by the lake level rising that spring by more than 15 feet after being at its lowest level in over 30 years. As well, 2005 was near the height of the previous real estate boom when overall market sales approached all-time highs.
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The Average Price and Median Price in 2012 increased 13% and 5% over 2011 and are up 36% and 17% from their 2010 lows. This increase in price measures can be attributed in large part to the increase in lakefront sales in the higher end price ranges. This year saw 5 sales over the 2M dollar mark and one sale over 3M dollars. Before this year there had not been a single lakefront sale over 2M since 2009.
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Average and Median Price Per Square Foot in 2012 saw a 2% decrease and 3.5% increase over 2011 and 2% decrease and 9% increase from their 2010 lows. In my opinion, these price measures better reflect the true appreciation rate of lakefront properties. The Median Price Per Square Foot in particular is usually considered the most reliable measure of market direction.
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Days On Market in 2012 saw a significant increase from 166 to 248. The 50% increase in the average time that a lakefront home was on the market before selling would normally be considered a negative market indicator. But when looking at the data more closely, one notes that the reason for the sizable increase in Days On Market is due to the sale of several homes that had been listed for sale for multiple years. The fact that certain homes that have been listed for years are finally selling in today’s market is a considerably positive market indicator.
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2013 Market Outlook
With only 19 Big Bear lakefront homes for sale currently and with lakefront buyer activity the highest it has been in nearly a decade, the underlying fundamentals for a market recovery are strong. When one considers that mortgage interest rates are still near all-time lows and that the water level of the lake is above its 10 year average for this time of year, I would expect the Big Bear lakefront Real Estate market to remain strong and bring continued property appreciation in 2013.