Looking at the number of Big Bear homes for sale during this first week of July, we currently have fewer homes for sale at this time of year than any other year since 2004. We currently have 626 homes for sale in the Big Bear MLS, compared to 831 in the first week of July 2011, and 926 in the first week of July 2010. This represents a 32% drop in number of Big Bear homes for sale in the first week of July when compared to just 2 years ago.
Big Bear lakefront real estate has seen similar home inventory declines. Currently there are only 31 lakefront homes for sale. Last year there were 35 lakefronts for sale in the first week of July and in 2010 there were 38.
This drop in home inventory bodes well for Big Bear real estate. With fewer properties for sale and with the number of sales so far in 2012 being stronger than they've been in years, the elements for a market recovery are in place.
Further encouraging the uptick in sales are record low mortgage rates. Headline news this morning on CNN/Money's website stated, "Mortgage Rates Smash Old Record". This story has trended to be the top read article of the day. They report that the average interest rate for a 30 year fixed loan has dropped to 3.62% nationally. This is down from a rate of 4.6% during this time last year.
As well, the tone of economists is become less pessimistic about the future of real estate. For the first time since the market's downturn, economists who are regularly asked to predict the future of real estate over the next five years have reached a consensus that values will begin increasing again in 2013 and will remain appreciating through 2016.
Although all markets are local and in recognizing that Big Bear real estate is a niche market in itself, my feeling is that we will see similar or even better appreciation than is expected on the national basis. I have often heard California economists state that trends in our state always seem to be exaggerated. Just as the market fell faster that the national average over the past few years, it will probably rebound faster than the national average suggests.
Only time will tell. But the elements of a recovery are finally lining up after years of mostly negative signs.