I still get question from time to time about how far the Big Bear real estate market has come since the market bottom. Most people have surprisingly forgotten about "The Great Recession" and I am glad there are still a few people out there that remember how bad things were and how strongly they have recovered.
For the Big Bear market, home prices hit bottom in the third quarter of 2011 when the average sale price of a Big Bear home bottomed out at $194,115 and the median hit a low at $146,000. In contrast, the average and median fourth quarter home prices in 2016 were $305,829 and $255,000. This represents an increase of 58% for the average sale price and a 75% increase in the median home price since the market's low point.
Although these price gains are impressive, let's take into consideration where prices are now in comparison to the market's peak.
The fourth quarter of 2006 saw a peak average Big Bear home price of $417,647 and the median was $320,000. Comparing these peak prices to the fourth quarter prices of 2016, the average home price is still down 27% while the median is down 23%. So there's still a way to go before surpassing the high mark of the last market boom.
I remember at the market bottom a veteran Big Bear real estate agent saying that we wouldn't see the peak's market prices again until 2021. At that point in time in late 2011, that date seemed so far off and such an unreasonably long amount of time before seeing a full recovery. But in retrospect, it looks like that prediction may be remarkably accurate.