Last week's two foot snowstorm triggered memories of the winter of 2004/2005 when the lake went from a 25 year low of 17 feet from full in December to just 2 feet down by May of the following year. This 15 foot rise in water levels put lakefront buyer's fears to rest as evidenced by a huge jump in lakefront home sales.

Big Bear Lake low water levelsIn 2004, as the lake's shoreline recessed and fears of a dried up lake took hold, and although in the midst of the largest real estate boom in California history, lakefront sales suffered dropping to 22 waterfront home sales for the year. Conversely, with a lake 15 feet more full by the following summer, sales almost doubled to 43 lakefront closings.

Similarly, in 2016 we saw the slowest year for lakefront sales going back to 2002 (when real estate sales data went online) with only 14 waterfront closings. Just like January 2005, we are experiencing above average precipitation through the first half of winter. At current pace, we very well might see a lake close to full come summer. Based on these similarities to 2005, and if the winter continues as wet as it has begun, I feel confident that we will see a significant jump in lakefront sales this upcoming year.

Big Bear Lake FullAnecdotally, I have already been contacted recently by several clients who looked at Big Bear lakefront property last summer but decided against buying due to the drought. They have been following the weather and are now watching the market to see when lakefronts will start selling in anticipation of a fuller lake.

Of course, timing in real estate is everything. Those that time it right might be able to get the lakefront they want at a shallow water price before the lake fills and prices go up.