Your Big Bear Lakefront Real Estate Blog

An up-to-date resource for lakefront market reports, news, and infomation...

Oct. 12, 2021

Big Bear Real Estate Numbers - September 2021

Comparing Big Bear home sales this September to those of last September, we continued to see a slow down in purchases with 140 closings this year compared to 251 closings last year. Although this 44% drop in sales may seem significant, we are still well above the 106 home sales we had in 2019, our last "normal" year.

Although sales are slowing, price measures are still rising year over year. 

The average and median sales prices of Big Bear homes rose 14% and 20% to $606,681 and $489,950 respectively. The average and median price per square foot also rose 36% and 42% to $398 and $387 respectively.

The average and median sale price to list price ratios stayed steady around 101% and 100% while the average and median days on market were slightly lower at 54 days and 43 days.

Perhaps the biggest market force driving Big Bear real estate currently is the incredibly low inventory of Big Bear homes for sale. There are currently only 136 single family residences listed in the entire valley. Based on last month's sales rate of 140 closings, that leaves us with less than one month of inventory!

So long as the inventory of homes stays this low, even in light of slowing sales, Big Bear home prices should continue to appreciate through the foreseeable future. 

 

 

Posted in Market Reports
Sept. 22, 2021

Big Bear Real Estate - August 2021 Numbers

Sales of big bear homes continued to simmer down in August but price measures still showed impressive year over year appreciation.

When comparing Big Bear home sales from August of last year to August of this year, the average and median sales prices of Big Bear homes rose 21% and 22% to $556,507 and $466,250 respectively.

Comparing average and median price per square foot measures, there was a 41% and 36% increase year over year to $388 and $372 respectively.

Homes were sold at 100.69% of list price on average this year, up from 99.33% last August. Meanwhile, Big Bear homes sold in just 50 days on average in August, which is less than half of 2020's average of 103 days.

Looking at the inventory of Big Bear homes for sale, there are still remarkably few homes listed. Last August we had about 250 homes for sale whereas this August we averaged about 225 listings.

In summary, sales are slowing after last years unprecedented boom in activity. Although the demand side of the equation has been softening, the supply side still remains low with extremely few homes listed for sale. Considering this along with the incredibly low days on market numbers we're seeing, the overall market is still in a very strong position.

 

 

Posted in Market Reports
Aug. 9, 2021

July 2021 - Big Bear Real Estate Market Update

Comparing July 2020's real estate numbers to those of July 2021, Big Bear home sales unexpectedly dropped by about 1/3rd to 131 closings. Although sales slowed this July, they were still well above the 105 closings we saw in 2019.

When we compare price measures from July 2020 to July 2021, we get a good sense of how much the market has appreciated over the past year.

The average and median sales prices rose 43% and 41% to $649,576 and $455,702 respectively. Meanwhile, the average and median price per square foot measures rose 38% and 46% respectively to $391 and $378 respectively.

The average sale price to list price ratio rose from 99% last July to 102% this July, with Big Bear homes continuing to sell for over full price on average.

The average days on market almost halved from 101 days in July 2020 to just 51 days in 2021.

Looking at the number of Big Bear homes for sale, we currently have 201 single family home listings on the market. Last August, we had approximately 250 listings while in August of 2019 we had 570.

Overall, the Big Bear real estate market continues to remain quite strong. Although sales dipped this July, they are significantly higher than they were in 2019, our most recent "normal year". With so few Big Bear homes listed for sale, with interest rates still near historic lows, and buyer demand remaining relatively high, it looks like the Big Bear real estate market will continue to fair well through the foreseeable future.

 

 

Posted in Market Reports
Aug. 2, 2021

Big Bear Real Estate - Mid Year Review

With the first half of the year coming to a close, I thought it would be interesting to compare the first 6 months of 2020, when the pandemic reared its ugly head, to the first 6 months of 2021, when Big Bear real estate saw record high sales and sale prices.

Here are the numbers comparing the first 6 months of 2020 to that same time period in 2021:

The average sale price of Big Bear homes rose 39% to $532,238.

The median sale price of Big Bear homes rose 50% to $450,000.

The average price per square foot was up 44% to $374.

The median price per square foot was up 44% to $360.

The average sales price to list price ratio rose from 98% to 104%.

The average Days On Market dropped from 113 days to get a home sold to just 48 days, a drop of 60%.

Lastly, comparing home inventory, we had 321 Big Bear homes for sale in June of 2020 while this June we had only 165 Big Bear homes for sale, a 49% drop.

These numbers are beyond anything that anyone could have imagined at the time the pandemic arrived. I think it is safe to say that these price increases and the speed at which they happened were unprecedented.

Understandably, many prognosticators are concerned about a real estate bubble adopting a "what goes up must come down" stance. But with so many well qualified purchasers over the last year putting significant down payments on their homes, and with many others paying all cash, I think a "bubble burst" is unlikely. 

Regardless, with the current home inventory astonishingly low, the Big Bear real estate market seems to be in a very strong position through the foreseeable future.

Posted in Market Reports
April 6, 2021

Big Bear Real Estate - 1st Quarter Comparison

2021's first quarter numbers are in for the Big Bear real estate market. Let's compare them to the first quarter of 2020's numbers to see how much things have changed over the incredibly busy year we've had. This should give us a good idea of how much the market has appreciated as we are comparing the 3 months in which homes went into escrow before the covid lockdown last year to the same three months this year during the recovery period.

Sales of Big Bear homes were up 36% in the first quarter of 2021 with 361 closings.

The average and median sales prices were up 31% and 34% to $509,913 and $425,000 respectively.

The average and median prices per square foot both rose 42%.

The average sales-price-to-list-price ratio went from 97.5% in 2020 to 104.5% in 2021. This means that homes sold for almost 5% over list price on average during 2021's first quarter.

The median days on market dropped from 93 days in 2020 to 39 days on 2021.

Home inventory currently stands at 111 single family homes listed in the Big Bear MLS. Last year there were approximately 360 at this time.

Not only do these numbers show the record year we had for Big Bear real estate in 2020, but with sales still 36% higher than this time last year and with inventory about 70% lower than it was last year, the supply and demand dynamic suggests the market is still in a very strong position! 

I would expect to see prices continue to appreciate until sales slow down and more listings come on the market. But as of now, there's really no sign things are slowing down.

Paul Zamoyta ~ Info@Zamoyta.com ~ 909.557.8285

 

Posted in Market Reports
Feb. 3, 2021

January 2021 Big Bear Real Estate Market Report

Here's a quick update comparing the Big Bear home sales numbers from January 2020 to January 2021.

Sales are up 60% this January to 129 Big Bear homes sold.

The average sale price of Big Bear homes is up 19% to $453,876 while the median sale price is up 40% to $400,000.

The average price per square foot is up 37% to $348 while the median price per square foot is up 40% to $337.

The average sales price to list price ratio was about 98% last January. That means that Big Bear home sellers conceded 2% off the list price on average in negotiations. This year that ratio was 104%. This means that on average sellers negotiated a sale price that was 4% more than their list price!

The average days on market for homes dropped 60% with homes selling 83 days quicker this January than in January 2020.

As if these numbers weren't spectacular enough, home inventory has been the big story this year and the main market force driving higher prices. Last January 15th we had 349 homes listed for sale. This January 15th we had only 62. That's an 82% drop in listings! (As of today, February 3rd, we have only 53 homes listed in the entirety of the Big Bear Valley.)

Because of the frustratingly low number of listings and with buyer demand so high, it is no wonder homes are selling for 104% of list price on average!

With mortgage rates remaining low and with the incredible frequency in which we are still receiving multiple offers resulting in bidding wars on many of our listings, I don't see this bull market in Big Bear real estate ending anytime soon!

Paul Zamoyta ~ info@Zamoyta.com ~ 909.557.8285

Posted in Market Reports
Jan. 4, 2021

2020 Big Bear Real Estate Year End Market Report

The inverted quote, "They were the worst of times. They were the best of times.", may be the best way to describe the year 2020 in the Big Bear real estate market.

We saw the lowest of lows in March when Big Bear home sales plummeted due to the onset of the Covid pandemic. Fear and uncertainty ruled the markets. It wasn't long though until Big Bear saw what was perhaps the most dramatic jump in market direction ever. Sales soared as people fled urban areas to the less populated and more outdoorsy regions such as Big Bear. Also fueled by a work force which in large part began working from home, fewer people listed their vacation homes for sale as they were now using them as their primary residences while others were experiencing record vacation rental income due to the urban exodus and thus were less likely to sell.

The overwhelming buyer demand for Big Bear homes far outweighed the supply of homes for sale. This pushed prices higher while competition often resulted in multiple offers and sales prices ending up well over list prices. The number of days on market that a home was listed before selling dropped significantly as well.

To quantify this summary, here are some figures and numbers to consider.

 

As mentioned, sales skyrocketed in 2020 to with 1749 Big Bear homes selling. This represents a 45% jump over 2019's sales. What makes this even more impressive is that this gain includes the first 2 months of the year where we saw flat sales numbers as well as the following 3 months of March, April and May where sales were about half of what they were the previous year. Sales from June through December much more than made up for the deficiencies we saw in the first 5 months of the year!

Here's a look at prices.

 

BIg Bear Real Estate 2020 Sales Prices

 

2020 Big Bear real estate sales price percent change

As these figures show, when compared to 2019, the average and median sales prices of Big Bear homes rose 33% and 20% to $470,630 and $360,000 respectively.

We see gains as well in the price per square foot measures.

 

 

The average and median prices per square foot rose 15% and 13% to $285 and $273 respectively.

The average sales price to list price ratio rose from 97% last year to 100% this year. This shows that on average, homes sold for full price in 2020.

As well, the Days On Market dropped 25% with homes spending a median of 52 days on market before selling.

One important thing to keep in mind is that all of these sales numbers include the first 5 months of the year which well underperformed those of the previous year. That means that measures such as the days on market were actually much lower in the last 6 months of the year than the annual number represents. This is true as well for the sales price to list price ratio which has been consistently over 100% for the last 6 months of the year.

With home inventory remaining remarkably low, buyer demand still extremely high, and with mortgage rates literally at all-time lows, there really doesn't seem to be an end in sight to the booming Big Bear real estate market. So far, it is looking like 2021 may be another spectacular year for Big Bear home prices as they catch up to the pricing of other desirable mountain resort communities!

 

Paul Zamoyta ~ info@Zamoyta.com ~ 909.557.8285

 

 

 

Posted in Market Reports
Nov. 11, 2020

October 2020 and Year-To-Date Update

October's Big Bear real estate numbers showed further market consistency as all major price measures showed remarkable gains in a same month comparison.

Big Bear home sales were up 40% this October as compared to October 2019. The average sale price was up 42% and the average price per square foot was up 24% over last October's numbers.

Looking back over the entirety of 2020, the following charts are a great way to see what has transpired this year in Big Bear real estate.

(Keep in mind when viewing these graphs that these figures represent the months when properties closed escrow. Typically, the offer on a property comes 30 to 45 days prior to closing. For example, September's sales were likely a result of homebuyers who made their offers in late July and August. So the sales in September really represent the market demand from the months prior.)

 

You can clearly see how the number of Big Bear home sales plummeted in April and May during the lockdown months. Equally as clear is how sales spiked immediately after the lockdown ended. Although sales have tapered in October, this is likely due to the lack of home inventory currently on the market. (More on that below.)

 

big bear real estate average sale price

As expected, when buyer activity spiked post-lockdown, the strong buyer demand pushed prices significantly higher with the average sale price showing consistent 37% - 42% gains when compared to the average sale price of homes during the same months in 2019.

 

median sale price big bear homes

Median sale prices of Big Bear homes showed slightly lower but still significant gains on a same month comparison.

 

big bear homes price per square foot

The price per square foot measure also increased, peaking at a 25% increase this October when compared to October 2019.

Perhaps the most revealing number in the Big Bear Real Estate market today is the number of homes listed for sale, better known as home inventory. As of today, there are only 106 homes for sale in the Big Bear MLS. This time last year, there were 455 homes for sale. That's more than a 75% drop in listings!

In the real estate world, we often show the relationship between buyer demand and the number of homes listed by dividing those 2 numbers giving us a measure called "months of inventory". This is a theoretical number that projects how many months it would take to sell all the current homes on the market if the sales pace stayed the same and no new homes came on the market. The lower the months of inventory, the stronger the market is.

Take a look at the figure below showing a brief history of months of inventory.

months of inventory BIg Bear real estate

A normal market will have about 5 months of inventory. This graph shows our current months of inventory at .6, an astonishingly low number! 

Because buyer demand for Big Bear homes has remained so strong and because the inventory of homes for sale has been progressively diminishing, prices are likely to continue to appreciate moving forward. Additionally aided by a recovering stock market and historically low interest rates, it is likely the bull market in Big Bear real estate will continue charging forward through 2020 and perhaps well into 2021!

Paul Zamoyta - Info@Zamoyta.com - 909.557.8285

Posted in Market Reports
Oct. 12, 2020

2020 Big Bear Real Estate Catch-Up

2020 will be a year that will certainly go down in Big Bear real estate history! The covid pandemic has left many people changing vacation plans that involved significant travel to farther away places for a more easily accessible getaway closer to home. With Big Bear's spectacular alpine setting less than a 3 hour drive for over 20 million people, our valley has experienced an unprecedented increase in visitorship as well as real estate sales. 

To quantify Big Bear's real estate boom, let's start with the last three months.

In a same month comparison to last year, the average sale price of a Big Bear home was up 39% in September. August sales also show a 39% increase, and July's numbers were up 35%. Astounding!

Sales this September were up almost 250% over last September.

September's average sale price of a Big Bear home was $531,945, the highest Big Bear has ever seen.

And perhaps the most telling stat of all is that the average home in Big Bear sold for OVER full price in September.

These numbers support what every Big Bear real estate agent has anecdotally experienced - multiple offers on most homes getting bid up to over list price with cash offers often winning out. As of late, buyers obtaining loans have been willing to remove appraisal contingencies and are willing to increase their down payments to secure a property as prices are accelerating so fast that appraised values are lagging. 

Working backwards, things weren't always this way in 2020. Take a look at the figures below.

 

Big Bear Homes Sales

 

Looking at the first figure, you can see that during the shutdown in April and May, sales were half what they were the previous year. But the real estate market in Big Bear took off shortly thereafter with September posting over double the number of sales from the previous year.

The second figure shows how prices stalled during the lockdown months only to see an unprecedented boom in prices over the last 3 months.

Yes, buyer demand has soared this year. But perhaps the more influential market condition that has driven prices higher is that the inventory of Big Bear homes for sale has never been lower. Currently, there are only 144 Big Bear homes for sale. Last year at this time, there were about 530 homes for sale. That's a 73% drop in home inventory!

With buyer demand still extraordinarily high, an extremely low level of home inventory, and mortgage rates hovering around all-time lows, the Big Bear market looks to be in a particularly strong position moving forward with additional price gains likely through the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

Posted in Market Reports
Aug. 25, 2020

July 2020 Big Bear Real Estate Numbers.... WHO KNEW?

Perhaps the most unforeseen shift in the history of the Big Bear Real Estate market occurred between April and May of this year when we saw our biggest consecutive month drop in sales followed by our biggest monthly increases through the following summer. We are still in the midst of the hottest market in anyone's memory as the Covid Pandemic has made life in the mountains exponentially more attractive to Southern Califonians.

To quantify this, lets compare the sales of Big Bear homes from July 2019 to July 2020.

July 2019 saw 105 Big Bear home sales whereas July 2020 saw 192 closings representing an incredible 83% increase in sales.

As you would imagine, prices have risen right along with the spike in demand. The average sale price is up 38% from last July at $455,950 while the median sale price is up 26% to $359,950. The average price per square foot is up 15% to $283 while the median is up 11% to $260.

One of the more impressive signs of the market's strength is that the median sales price to list price ratio is 99.5%. This means that properties are selling at almost full price more often than not!

But perhaps the most telling sign of the market's current strength is the listing to pending sales ratio. As of this morning, there are only 143 Big Bear homes for sale (a record low) yet there are 342 homes in escrow (a record high). This remarkable imbalance of incredibly high demand and sparse supply clearly suggests that the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future. When you consider that interests rate will likely remain at their historically low rates, with a continued seller's market, prices are likely to continune their ascent toward all-time highs.

But just like the market unexpectedly spiking this summer, I think uncertainty has become the most certain thing in today's market. So stay tuned to my blog for updates moving forward in 2020!

 

Posted in Market Reports