Because the Big Bear Real Estate market is a relatively small one, I often look to the quarterly sales figures for more accurate guidance as to market conditions. Monthly sales figures can be deceptive as there are sometimes too few sales to get a true picture of the market conditions. Just a few very high end or low end sales can sway the data significantly. Looking at quarterly numbers give us a larger sample size and more relevant numbers to work with.
On that note, here's an historical look at the number of Big Bear homes that have sold each quarter.
You can see from this figure how sales trend up each summer and drop into the slower winter months. Comparing the second quarter sales of this year to the last 5 years, you will see that although 2017 was higher and 2018 was lower, over time, we are right about average over the past 5 years. So sales remain stable.
Here's a look at the average and median sales price and price per square foot of Big Bear homes.
Although the price measures of Big Bear homes trend up and down regularly over time, the overall trend of both sales prices and the price per square foot measures are still moving in the positive direction. Prices are continuing to appreciate well into their 8th year of consistent gains.
Here's a look at the number of listings and months of inventory.
Not unlike sales, Big Bear home listings trend upward in the summer and hit their bottom in the winter months. Currently, we have slightly fewer listings than we had last year and far fewer than the at the market's bottom in 2011.
This figure shows Months of Inventory which is derived by dividing the number of listings for a specific month by the number of sales for that month. It results in a theoretical number of months it would take for every listing to sell if sales remained constant and if no new listings came on the market.
A typical market has about 5 to 6 months of inventory, so the Big Bear real estate market is at a healthy balance between a buyer's market and seller's market currently.
Lastly, let's look at mortgage interest rates.
This figure shows the significant rise in interest rates we saw from late 2017 to the end of 2018. 2019 has seen a welcomed drop in rates from almost 5% to solidly under 4%. This 1%+ drop in rates actually translates into an almost 10% gain in a buyer's purchase power. Near it's historical low, buyers are in a unique position to take advantage of these amazing interest rates.
With Big Bear home sales steady, home values continuing to appreciate, and near record low mortgage rates, the Big Bear real estate market continues to be bullish. Although there has been a lot of talk about uncertainty in all financial markets, there are no indicators that Big Bear's real estate market is anything but solid through the foreseeable future.