If you've visited Big Bear from time to time these past few years, you might have noticed the rare event of lake water spilling over the top of the dam just a couple of years ago. But more recently, you would have now noticed that lake levels have receded to their lowest point in almost a decade. The ups and downs of our lake's water levels is a somewhat unpredictable but certainly a normal part of our unique local environment. Ultimately, the rise and fall of lake levels is part of the continual dance that Mother Nature's does with our "blue jewel" better known as Big Bear Lake.
A full lake has a depth of 72 feet 4 inches at the Big Bear dam, its deepest point. As mentioned above, in April of 2011, water was skimming over the top of the dam after a healthy winter of precipitation. Over the past two and a half years, we have seen less than normal precipitation resulting in current lake levels of 8 feet 2 inches below full.
Here is a chart showing Big Bear Lake's water levels for December as well as annual precipitation over the past 28 years. (lake level shown in feet and precipitation in inches/year)
You can see that this year is tied with 1999 for the lowest amount of annual precipitation over this 28 year time period. You can also see that our second highest year for precipitation was 2010, which resulted in the full lake levels we experienced in spring of 2011. So all it takes is one good year to make significant progress in filling the lake.
Let's take a look at just the lake levels on their own.
You can see that although the lake is down just over 8 feet currently, this pales in comparison to December of 2004 when the lake was over 16 feet below full. Another item of note is that out of the last 28 years, 22 of those years saw the lake between 10 feet down and full. And in 11 of the past 28 years, we saw the lake between just 5 feet down and full.
Over this 28 year period of time, the average lake level in December has been 65 feet, which is 7 feet 4 inches from full. The median level for this time period was 65.5 feet or 6 feet 10 inches from full.
It seems like every time the lake's water level dips below 7-8 feet, rumors start flying about the possibility of the lake "drying up". Although Mother Nature certainly has the final say in this decision, the reality is that ups and downs are simply the normal life cycle of the lake. Furthermore, with the lake's governing body, the Big Bear Municipal Water District (BBMWD) having negotiated better lake friendly policies for contractual water releases from the dam, what human control we have over lake stabilization has become much better.
Ultimately, Big Bear Lake is an integral part of our local economy. Not only does the lake provide summer recreation opportunities, but it is also the water source for snowmaking at our local ski resorts. So a healthy, full lake certainly helps the local economy and quells unreasonable fears of a disappearing Big Bear Lake.
As for it's effect on Big Bear real estate, the largest impact on home values would obviously be to lakefront properties. In particular, the shallower water locations will see a negative impact as dozens of these usually waterfront homes will lose their lake access. In contrast, deeper water lakefronts become more attractive as a receding lake oftentimes reveals a desirable beach frontage while maintaining the security of easy lake access.
Winter, the season in which we usually experience our most precipitation, has just begun and unfortunately we've been off to a slower than usual start. But Mother Nature has her own plans and we never quite know what she has in store. Let's hope for the best heading into the new year and think positive about the possibility of water trickling over the top of the dam come springtime.